A recent study conducted in Germany suggests that the country may only be ready for a potential war after many years. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) prepared a research report titled “Europe and Germany’s slow armament against Russia.” The report indicates that Germany’s military may only be prepared for a war after many years. It points out that Germany is slowly arming itself against the Russian threat, and emphasizes that the gap in military capacities between Germany and Russia continues to widen.
The report highlights that given the current threat posed by Russia, the defense expenditures made by the coalition government are entirely inadequate. When considering the current supply speed, it is estimated that it will take Germany almost 100 years to reach the military stock levels of 20 years ago. The report also mentions that with the current supply speed of the German Army, it would take approximately 15 years to reach the 2004 stock levels of combat aircraft, about 40 years for tank stocks, and almost 100 years for artillery stocks.
For instance, in 2004, Germany had 423 combat aircraft, but by 2021, this number had decreased to 226. Based on the ordering speed of the past 2 years, it may be possible to reach the 2004 number again by 2038. The report also states that Russia, with its growing production capacity, could produce all of the stocks of the German Army in just over 6 months. Since the Ukraine war, Russia has significantly increased its production capacities for important weapon systems. The report emphasizes that Russia has made significant progress in modern warfare systems, increasing its capacity for unmanned aerial vehicles by more than 6 times and doubling its long-range air defense system production.
Guntram Wolff, the head of the research team, emphasized the increasing security threat posed by Russia to NATO and expressed concern over the slow progress in rearmament necessary for deterrence. He stated that it is crucial for Europe to increase regular German defense spending to at least 2% of GDP in addition to special funds. Wolff also warned against neglecting Russia’s aggression and irresponsible behavior. Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, criticized the government’s new defense rhetoric as merely empty words.
Schularick believes that peace will only come when Russia realizes it cannot win the military conflict in Ukraine. He stressed the importance of Germany and Europe having credible military capabilities, suggesting that Germany should have an annual defense budget of at least 100 billion Euros. It is clear that urgent action is needed to address the slow progress in military readiness and ensure the security of the region in the face of growing threats.
